Against the backdrop of a more complex global trade environment and rising policy uncertainty, Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) in April 2025 increased by 12.4% year-on-year, the largest monthly increase in nearly nine months. Although the data far exceeded market expectations, many institutions and officials warned that short-term factors were mixed behind the strong growth, and export momentum may face correction pressure in the coming months.
According to data released by the Singapore Economic Development Board on May 16, NODX in April increased by 12.4% year-on-year, higher than 5.4% in March. Electronic product exports performed particularly well, increasing by 23.5%, driving a 124.3% surge in personal computers, 23.3% in integrated circuits and 33.0% in disk media products respectively. Non-electronic products also grew by 9.3%, of which non-monetary gold increased by 80.4%, and structures of ships and boats and special machinery increased by 7.2%.
From the perspective of major export markets, NODX to Indonesia increased by 111.2% year-on-year, Taiwan by 47.4%, and South Korea by 38.1%. The specific commodity structure shows that the demand in the Indonesian market is concentrated on ships, gold and computers, while Taiwan and South Korea are experiencing a boom in stocking special equipment and semiconductors. In contrast, NODX to mainland China and Malaysia continued to shrink, while the US market also showed signs of slowing down, from 6.2% in March to 1.2%.
OCBC Chief Economist Lin Xiuxin pointed out that the growth of NODX in April was far beyond expectations, mainly due to the phenomenon of front-loading of electronic products. She emphasized that since the “Liberation Day reciprocal tariff” on April 2 announced that electronic products could be exempted from taxation, exporters have actively moved shipments forward and strived to complete export arrangements within the 90-day policy buffer period.
Lin Xiuxin predicts that if China and the United States fail to reach a longer-term agreement within the 90-day window period, there is a risk of subsequent exports falling from a high level. OCBC Bank maintained its full-year NODX growth forecast range between -1% and +1%, and pointed out that in the second half of the year, due to the high base, the export growth rate will slow down significantly. In addition, whether global semiconductors will be included in the tariff list of specific industries in the future will also affect the development prospects of Singapore’s electronic industry chain.
UOB Research Report believes that the rebound in exports in April has “typical policy-driven characteristics”. The bank pointed out that the re-export trade of electronic equipment (Non-oil Re-exports) surged by 58.9% year-on-year, close to the historical peak, reflecting that supply chain companies concentrated shipments in response to potential policy changes.
UOB further pointed out that the United States launched an investigation into the application of 232 tariffs on pharmaceutical and semiconductor products in April. The market expects that the tariff policy will be restarted after July 9. The pre-shipment will have a “payback effect” on subsequent orders, which may lead to weaker export performance in 2026. The bank therefore raised its NODX growth forecast for 2025 to +2.0% to +4.0%, but reminded investors to be cautious about sustainability.
The forecast report released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) in April significantly lowered the growth rate of global merchandise trade in 2025 from 3.0% to 0.2%, one of the reasons being the resurgence of economic and trade frictions between the United States and China. The WTO warned that if China and the United States re-impose comprehensive tariffs, bilateral merchandise trade volume may plummet by 81%.
The WTO also warned that the “decoupling” trend of the global economy may cause a loss of up to 7% in global GDP in the long run. In addition, the current global trade system has shifted from “rules-based” to “deals-based”, making policy predictability less predictable and weakening global economic stability.
The report also pointed out that trade in North America will fall by 12.6% in 2025, and Asia will only grow by 1.6%, which is significantly slower than 2.3% and 8.0% in 2024, respectively. This trend means that Singapore, as a global trade hub, will inevitably face downward pressure, and even if the short-term data is optimistic, it needs to be prepared for medium- and long-term unfavorable factors.
Despite the outstanding performance in April, all parties in the market generally expect that the growth of exports will gradually weaken in the future. On the one hand, the essence of forward shipments is to rush into the policy window, which is not sustainable; on the other hand, global terminal demand has not yet fully recovered, and the market outside Southeast Asia is still weak.
Some sub-items of Singapore’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in April have fallen below the boom-bust line, which also shows that Singapore’s manufacturing base is still fragile.
In a recent media interview, Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong pointed out that many companies took advantage of the 90-day suspension period to ship goods to places where tariffs are imposed as early as possible. “So you may see our exports grow and economic activity pick up. But this is not comforting because it is advance sales and exports. This means that exports and output will slow down for some time to come.”
When the Singapore Ministry of Trade and Industry released the first quarter economic growth forecast data in April, it revised down the full-year growth forecast from 1% to 3% to zero to 2%.