In a research report, UOB Kay Hian analyst Suryaputra Wijaksana wrote that Indonesian trade faces significant headwinds in 2026.
This stems from a global economic slowdown and protectionist policies targeting Indonesia’s major exports such as coal and palm oil. India, a major buyer of palm oil, poses a threat to Indonesia by reducing its imports of this commodity.
However, the analyst stated that a potential new trade agreement with the United States and demand from Europe could partially offset the impact of these challenges.
He added that a tariff-free trade agreement with the United States would provide a modest boost to non-commodity exports.